Polls show that Americans consistently underestimate how long they will live—a convenient assumption that justifies retiring early and spending now, while causing dependency over the long run. The nine justices on the first Supreme Court sat an average of nine years; the last nine to depart, an average of 27 years.Now think of the Supreme Court as life expectancy increases. The nine justices on the first Court sat an average of nine years; the last nine to depart, an average of 27 years. John Paul Stevens, the most recent to retire, was a justice for 35 years. If Clarence Thomas lives to the actuarial life expectancy of a male his current age, he could be a Supreme Court justice for 40 years.
The early-retirement option, added by Congress in 1961—start drawing at age 62, though with lower benefits—is appealing if life is short, but backfires as life span extends. People who opt for early Social Security may reach their 80s having burned through savings, and face years of living on a small amount rather than the full benefit they might have received.
At least one other change, such as later retirement or revised cost-of-living formulas, is required. A fair guess is that the government will do nothing about Social Security reform until a crisis strikes—and then make panicked, ill-considered moves that foresight might have avoided. In 1940, the typical American who reached age 65 would ultimately spend about 17 percent of his or her life retired. Yet Social Security remains structured as if longevity were stuck in a previous century.
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(State and local governments have at least another $1 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities.) These disconcerting numbers flow from the leading analyst who thinks that the life-span increase is slowing causes of hair loss down. Young urban Japanese surely are aware that their elders are ringing up bills to be handed to them, but they’re also aware that if funding for the retired is cut, Grandma may want to move into their very small apartment.
- Red meat consumption is linked to an increased risk of heart disease and cancer.
- Studies suggest that optimists are at a lower risk for heart disease and, generally, live longer than pessimists.
- Researchers speculate that optimists have a healthier approach to life in general–exercising more, socializing, and actively seeking out medical advice.
- Sex burns calories, decreases stress, improves sleep, and may even protect against heart disease.
- Weight-bearing exercise, such as walking, strengthens your bones.
- Getting down and dirty two to three times a week can have significant health benefits.
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But if health span does not improve, longer life could make disability in aging an economic crisis. Today, Medicare and Medicaid spend about $150 billion annually on Alzheimer’s patients.
As life expectancy rises, a Japanese person entering the happy-go-lucky phase of early adulthood may find that parents and grandparents both expect to be looked after. Because the only child is common in Japan’s newest generation, a big cast of aging people may turn to one young person for financial support or caregiving or both. Acceding to public borrowing may have become, to young Japanese, a way to keep older generations out of the apartment—even if it means crushing national debt down the road.
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Absent progress against aging, the number of people with Alzheimer’s could treble by 2050, with society paying as much for Alzheimer’s care as for the current defense budget. Suppose the escalator slows, and conservative assumptions about life expectancy prevail. In a 2009 study, Olshansky projected future demographics under the “hit a wall” scenario. The number of Americans 65 or older, 43 million today, could reach 108 million in 2050—that would be like adding three more Floridas, inhabited entirely by seniors. The “oldest old” cohort, those 85 and older, may increase at least fivefold, to more than 6 percent of the U.S. citizenry.
